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WTI Crude 78.25 ▼ -3.85%XBR/USD 81.40 ▼ -3.70%BTC/USD 64,884.00 ▼ -2.79%ETH/USD 1,766.53 ▼ -1.87%NGAS 2.68 ▼ -1.10%XAG/USD 29.85 ▲ +0.60%US100 18,650.00 ▼ -0.55%XAU/USD 2,335.50 ▲ +0.45%DE40 18,345.00 ▲ +0.35%US500 5,387.50 ▼ -0.32%UK100 8,215.00 ▲ +0.28%AUD/USD 0.7069 ▼ -0.25%EUR/USD 1.161 ▼ -0.15%USD/JPY 160.357 ▲ +0.12%US30 40,125.00 ▲ +0.08%GBP/USD 1.3425 ▼ -0.08%WTI Crude 78.25 ▼ -3.85%XBR/USD 81.40 ▼ -3.70%BTC/USD 64,884.00 ▼ -2.79%ETH/USD 1,766.53 ▼ -1.87%NGAS 2.68 ▼ -1.10%XAG/USD 29.85 ▲ +0.60%US100 18,650.00 ▼ -0.55%XAU/USD 2,335.50 ▲ +0.45%DE40 18,345.00 ▲ +0.35%US500 5,387.50 ▼ -0.32%UK100 8,215.00 ▲ +0.28%AUD/USD 0.7069 ▼ -0.25%EUR/USD 1.161 ▼ -0.15%USD/JPY 160.357 ▲ +0.12%US30 40,125.00 ▲ +0.08%GBP/USD 1.3425 ▼ -0.08%
Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington D.C., where policymakers will announce their rate decision at 18:00 ET today
📰 TOP STORY
Markets brace for Fed decision as oil plunges on Iran sanction-relief reports
European stocks rose modestly while oil tumbled below $80 on reports the U.S. may ease Iran sanctions as part of an interim peace agreement, potentially flooding the market with ad…
📷 Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington D.C., where policymakers will announce their rate decision at 18:00 ET today — Wikimedia Commons
Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington D.C., where policymakers will announce their rate decision at 18:00 ET today
Markets brace for Fed decision as oil plunges on Iran sanction-relief reports

European stocks rose modestly while oil tumbled below $80 on reports the U.S. may ease Iran sanctions as part of an interim peace agreement, potentially flooding the market with additional crude supply. U.S. futures are mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve's 18:00 ET rate decision, with markets pricing in a hold at 3.75% but focused on Powell's press conference and updated economic projections for clues on the path forward.

📷 Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington D.C., where policymakers will announce their rate decision at 18:00 ET today — Wikimedia Commons

📅 Economic Calendar

Time (CY)Time (ET)CountryEventImpactPreviousForecastActual
06:00 06:00 UK CPI y/y 🔴 HIGH 2.8% 3.0%
18:00 18:00 US Federal Funds Rate 🔴 HIGH 3.75% 3.75%
18:00 18:00 US FOMC Economic Projections 🔴 HIGH
18:00 18:00 US FOMC Statement 🔴 HIGH
18:30 18:30 US FOMC Press Conference 🔴 HIGH
22:45 22:45 NZ GDP q/q 🔴 HIGH 0.2% 0.8%

📊 Market Report

WTI Crude
WTI Crude Oil USD per barrel
BEARISH
78.25 USD
▼ -3.85% today ▼ -5.20% week
What happened: WTI crude has plunged below $80 per barrel following reports that the U.S. administration is preparing to ease sanctions on Iran as part of an interim peace agreement. Markets are pricing in the potential for significant additional crude supply from Iranian exports, which could add 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day to global markets. The move is also easing inflation concerns, with implications for Fed policy.
Watch: Watch for any official confirmation or denial of the Iran sanction-relief reports. EIA inventory data at 14:30 ET will provide near-term direction. Key support at $77.50 is being tested.
Support: 77.5 · Resistance: 82
XBR/USD
Brent Crude USD per barrel
BEARISH
81.40 USD
▼ -3.70% today ▼ -4.95% week
What happened: Brent crude is tracking WTI's sharp decline, falling below $82 on reports the U.S. may scale back Iran sanctions as part of a broader Middle East peace initiative. The international benchmark is under pressure from expectations of increased Iranian crude exports, which would ease global supply tightness. The move is also shifting inflation expectations lower, with implications for central bank policy globally.
Watch: Watch for any geopolitical developments or official statements on Iran sanctions. Brent's discount to historical levels reflects oversupply concerns. Support at $80 is key.
Support: 80 · Resistance: 84.5
NGAS
Natural Gas USD per MMBtu
BEARISH
2.68 USD
▼ -1.10% today ▼ -2.30% week
What happened: Natural gas is trading lower in sympathy with crude oil's sharp decline, though the move is less dramatic. Mild weather forecasts and elevated storage levels continue to weigh on prices. The broader energy sector weakness is spilling over into gas markets as traders reassess the inflation and economic growth outlook ahead of the Fed decision.
Watch: Watch weekly storage data and any shifts in summer cooling demand forecasts. Natural gas remains range-bound with limited upside catalysts in the near term.
Support: 2.55 · Resistance: 2.85
XAG/USD
Silver USD per troy ounce
BULLISH
29.85 USD
▲ +0.60% today ▲ +1.50% week
What happened: Silver is outperforming gold in pre-market trading, benefiting from both safe-haven demand and its industrial metal characteristics. The white metal is tracking gold's advance ahead of the Fed decision while also gaining support from expectations that lower rates could boost industrial and manufacturing activity.
Watch: Silver's dual nature makes it sensitive to both Fed policy signals and any forward guidance on economic growth. Watch for breakout above $30 if Powell strikes a dovish tone.
Support: 29.2 · Resistance: 30.5
XAU/USD
Gold USD per troy ounce
BULLISH
2,335.50 USD
▲ +0.45% today ▲ +1.20% week
What happened: Gold is rebounding in pre-market U.S. trading as investors seek safe-haven exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision at 18:00 ET. The yellow metal is benefiting from a softer dollar and falling real yields, with traders positioning for potential dovish surprises in the updated dot plot or Powell's press conference commentary on the pace of future rate cuts.
Watch: Gold will be highly sensitive to any shift in the Fed's terminal rate projections and forward guidance. A dovish tilt could propel gold toward $2360 resistance. Watch the dollar and 10-year real yields closely.
Support: 2310 · Resistance: 2360
US100
Nasdaq 100 index points
BEARISH
18,650.00 USD
▼ -0.55% today ▼ -1.20% week
What happened: Tech-heavy Nasdaq futures are underperforming in pre-market following yesterday's sharp selloff driven by profit-taking in mega-cap tech names. The tech sector remains vulnerable to any hawkish surprises from the Fed, particularly around the pace of future rate cuts and updated inflation projections. Growth stocks are sensitive to the higher-for-longer narrative.
Watch: Watch for any shift in the Fed's terminal rate expectations or comments on AI-driven productivity gains. Semiconductor and mega-cap tech names will be volatile into the close. Key support at 18500.
Support: 18500 · Resistance: 18900
DE40
DAX index points
BULLISH
18,345.00 EUR
▲ +0.35% today ▲ +0.80% week
What happened: German stocks closed higher in European trading, supported by stronger-than-expected industrial sector data and a weaker euro that benefits exporters. The DAX outperformed regional peers as energy stocks shrugged off falling oil prices, with the focus shifting to tonight's Fed decision and potential spillover effects on ECB policy expectations.
Watch: Watch for any shift in Fed guidance that could impact ECB rate expectations and euro positioning. DAX constituents with U.S. exposure will be sensitive to Powell's tone.
Support: 18200 · Resistance: 18500
US500
S&P 500 index points
NEUTRAL
5,387.50 USD
▼ -0.32% today ▼ -0.85% week
What happened: U.S. futures are trading slightly lower in pre-market after yesterday's tech-led selloff that saw the S&P 500 retreat from record highs. Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed decision at 18:00 ET, with traders positioning cautiously. Energy stocks are under pressure from the sharp drop in crude oil on Iran sanction-relief reports, while financials and industrials are holding steadier.
Watch: All eyes on the 14:00 ET Federal Reserve rate decision, updated dot plot, and Powell's 14:30 ET press conference. Any shift in forward guidance or inflation outlook will drive afternoon volatility. Support at 5350 is critical.
Support: 5350 · Resistance: 5450
UK100
FTSE 100 index points
NEUTRAL
8,215.00 GBP
▲ +0.28% today ▲ +0.55% week
What happened: The FTSE 100 closed modestly higher in London trading, supported by a weaker pound and gains in financial and industrial sectors. Energy stocks came under pressure from falling oil prices on Iran sanction-relief reports, capping the index's advance. Markets are awaiting tonight's Fed decision and its implications for Bank of England policy trajectory.
Watch: UK CPI data at 06:00 ET already released showed inflation at forecast levels. Watch for any Fed-driven sterling volatility and its impact on FTSE exporters. Support at 8150 holds.
Support: 8150 · Resistance: 8280
US30
Dow Jones index points
NEUTRAL
40,125.00 USD
▲ +0.08% today ▼ -0.15% week
What happened: The Dow is holding near record highs in pre-market, outperforming tech-heavy benchmarks as investors rotate into value and defensive sectors ahead of the Fed decision. Industrials and financials are providing support, though energy constituents are dragging on the index following crude's sharp decline on Iran sanction-relief reports.
Watch: The Dow's relative strength reflects defensive positioning ahead of the Fed. Watch for sustained momentum if Powell strikes a dovish tone. Resistance at 40200 is within reach.
Support: 39900 · Resistance: 40200
AUD/USD
Australian Dollar/US Dollar USD per AUD
BEARISH
0.70689 USD
▼ -0.25% today ▼ -0.80% week
What happened: The Australian dollar is under modest pressure in pre-market U.S. trading, weighed down by falling commodity prices—particularly iron ore and crude oil—which are key Australian exports. The Aussie is also sensitive to broader risk sentiment ahead of the Fed decision. RBA Assistant Governor Jones's earlier remarks at 01:30 ET provided limited new policy guidance, leaving the pair vulnerable to external drivers.
Watch: AUD/USD will track commodity prices and risk appetite into the Fed decision. A dovish Powell could lift the Aussie toward 0.7100 resistance, while continued commodity weakness risks a test of 0.7020 support.
Support: 0.702 · Resistance: 0.71
EUR/USD
Euro/US Dollar USD per EUR
NEUTRAL
1.16102 USD
▼ -0.15% today ▼ -0.35% week
What happened: The euro is holding steady against the dollar in pre-market U.S. trading, consolidating near 1.1610 ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision at 18:00 ET. Markets are awaiting fresh direction from Powell's press conference and updated economic projections. ECB President Lagarde's earlier remarks at 10:50 ET provided limited new information, leaving the pair range-bound. Eurozone final CPI data confirmed expectations at 3.2% y/y.
Watch: EUR/USD will be highly sensitive to any shift in the Fed's forward guidance or dot plot. A dovish surprise could lift the euro toward 1.1650 resistance, while hawkish tones risk a test of 1.1550 support.
Support: 1.155 · Resistance: 1.165
USD/JPY
US Dollar/Japanese Yen JPY per USD
NEUTRAL
160.357 JPY
▲ +0.12% today ▲ +0.45% week
What happened: The dollar is holding near multi-decade highs against the yen above 160.00, a level that historically triggers Japanese Ministry of Finance verbal or actual intervention. The pair is consolidating in tight ranges ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision, with traders cautious about pushing higher given intervention risks. The wide interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan continues to support the dollar, but the pace of gains has slowed.
Watch: Watch for any shift in Fed guidance that could widen or narrow rate differentials. Japanese officials have warned repeatedly about excessive yen weakness. A break above 160.50 could trigger intervention rhetoric or action.
Support: 159.5 · Resistance: 161
GBP/USD
British Pound/US Dollar USD per GBP
NEUTRAL
1.34249 USD
▼ -0.08% today ▼ -0.25% week
What happened: Sterling is trading slightly lower against the dollar in pre-market U.S. hours, consolidating after UK CPI data at 06:00 ET came in at 3.0% y/y as expected, confirming inflation remains above the Bank of England's target. Cable is holding above 1.34 support as traders await the Fed decision for fresh direction. The pound's performance reflects a balance between UK domestic inflation concerns and broader dollar dynamics.
Watch: Watch for any Fed-driven dollar volatility that could push Cable toward 1.3350 support or 1.3480 resistance. BoE policy expectations remain in focus given sticky UK inflation.
Support: 1.335 · Resistance: 1.348
BTC/USD
Bitcoin USD per coin
BEARISH
64,884.00 USD
▼ -2.79% today ▼ -4.20% week
What happened: Bitcoin is under pressure in pre-market U.S. hours, trading down nearly 3% as risk appetite wanes ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision. The leading cryptocurrency is caught between competing narratives: lower rates and easing inflation (from falling oil) are typically supportive, but uncertainty around Fed forward guidance and profit-taking after recent gains are weighing on sentiment. Correlation with tech stocks remains elevated.
Watch: Bitcoin will be highly sensitive to Powell's tone and any shift in the Fed's dot plot. A dovish surprise could spark a relief rally toward $68,000, while hawkish guidance risks a test of $62,000 support.
Support: 62000 · Resistance: 68000
ETH/USD
Ethereum USD per coin
BEARISH
1,766.53 USD
▼ -1.87% today ▼ -3.50% week
What happened: Ethereum is underperforming Bitcoin slightly, down nearly 2% in pre-market trading as the broader crypto market digests risk-off sentiment ahead of the Fed decision. ETH is tracking weakness in tech stocks given its role in decentralized finance and smart contract applications. Traders are positioning defensively ahead of Powell's press conference, with liquidity thinning into the U.S. open.
Watch: Watch for correlation with Nasdaq futures and any shift in risk appetite following the Fed decision. Key support at $1,720 is holding for now, but a hawkish Fed could test that level.
Support: 1720 · Resistance: 1850

🧠 Macro Analysis

What Happened This Session

European equities closed modestly higher in a cautious session dominated by anticipation of tonight's Federal Reserve rate decision. The Stoxx 600, DAX, and FTSE 100 all posted gains between 0.3% and 0.4%, supported by stronger-than-expected industrial data from Germany and a rotation into financial and industrial sectors. However, energy stocks underperformed sharply across the region following reports that the U.S. administration is preparing to ease sanctions on Iran as part of an interim peace agreement, which sent crude oil prices tumbling below $80 per barrel for WTI and below $82 for Brent. The move, if confirmed, could add 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day of Iranian crude to global markets, alleviating supply concerns but also pressuring energy company earnings outlooks.

UK inflation data at 06:00 ET came in exactly at forecast, with headline CPI at 3.0% y/y and core CPI at 2.7% y/y, confirming that inflation remains above the Bank of England's 2% target but is gradually moderating. Sterling held steady against the dollar following the release, trading just below 1.3450. Eurozone final CPI data for May was also confirmed at 3.2% y/y, in line with preliminary estimates, providing no surprises. ECB President Lagarde's remarks at 10:50 ET reiterated the central bank's data-dependent approach and confidence in the inflation path returning to target, but offered no new policy signals.

U.S. futures are trading mixed in pre-market hours, with the Dow holding near record highs while the Nasdaq 100 is underperforming following yesterday's tech-sector selloff. The S&P 500 is down modestly, caught between defensive positioning ahead of the Fed and the negative impact of falling energy stocks. Traders are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the 18:00 ET rate decision, with markets pricing in a hold at 3.75% but focused intensely on the updated dot plot of policymakers' rate projections and Chair Powell's 18:30 ET press conference. Any shift in forward guidance—particularly around the pace and timing of future rate cuts—will drive significant volatility into the close and after-hours trading.

The oil price collapse is having a two-fold market impact: it is pressuring energy sector earnings expectations and dragging on energy-heavy indices, but it is also easing inflation concerns and potentially giving the Fed more room to maneuver on rate policy. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding near 4.25%, while the dollar is consolidating ahead of the decision. Gold is benefiting from safe-haven flows and lower real yields, rebounding toward $2,335 per ounce. Crypto markets are under pressure, with Bitcoin down nearly 3% and Ethereum down nearly 2%, tracking weakness in tech stocks and reflecting risk-off sentiment.

The key theme for the U.S. open is positioning ahead of the Fed. Volumes are expected to be lighter than normal in the morning session, with the real action coming in the afternoon following the 14:00 ET rate statement, updated projections, and Powell's press conference. Retail sales data at 12:30 ET will provide the last major data point before the decision, with markets looking for confirmation that consumer spending remains resilient. Any surprise—positive or negative—in the retail figures could shift pre-Fed positioning and add to intraday volatility.

What Could Move Markets Next

The overwhelming risk for the U.S. session is the Federal Reserve rate decision at 18:00 ET and Chair Powell's press conference at 18:30 ET. Markets are universally expecting a hold at 3.75%, so the focus will be entirely on forward guidance: the updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot), revised inflation and growth forecasts, and Powell's tone during the press conference. Any shift in the median dot plot—particularly around the timing and pace of future rate cuts—will drive significant volatility across all asset classes. A more hawkish-than-expected stance (e.g., fewer cuts projected for 2026 or a higher terminal rate) could trigger a selloff in equities, strength in the dollar, and weakness in gold and crypto. Conversely, a dovish surprise (more cuts projected, acknowledgment of easing inflation pressures) could spark a risk-on rally.

Before the Fed decision, U.S. retail sales data at 12:30 ET will be closely watched. The consensus forecast is for 0.5% m/m headline growth and 0.6% core (ex-auto) growth. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce the Fed's patience on rate cuts and shift market pricing toward a more hawkish outcome, while a weak print could fuel dovish expectations. President Trump is also scheduled to speak at 13:30 ET, and any comments on trade, fiscal policy, or the Fed could move markets. EIA crude oil inventory data at 14:30 ET will be important for energy markets, with expectations for a draw of 3.6 million barrels; any surprise build could extend crude's selloff.

Beyond the Fed, geopolitical risk remains elevated. The reports of potential U.S. sanctions relief on Iran are unconfirmed and could be walked back or denied, which would reverse some of today's oil price decline. Any escalation in Middle East tensions or clarification on the Iran policy will be a key driver for energy markets and broader risk sentiment. Finally, earnings season is winding down, but any after-hours surprises from remaining reporters could add to volatility in individual names and sectors.

Key Levels to Watch

InstrumentSupportResistancePivot
US500 5350 5450 5400
US100 18500 18900 18700
US30 39900 40200 40050
XAU/USD 2310 2360 2335
WTI Crude 77.5 82 79.75
BTC/USD 62000 68000 65000
EUR/USD 1.155 1.165 1.16
USD/JPY 159.5 161 160.25

🎯 Risk / Sentiment Matrix

Asset ClassSentimentKey DriverRisk LevelDirection
US Equities NEUTRAL Pre-Fed positioning with traders awaiting 18:00 ET rate decision and Powell press conference for forward guidance HIGH
European Equities BULLISH Stronger German industrial data and rotation into financials/industrials offsetting energy sector weakness MEDIUM
Gold / Precious Metals BULLISH Safe-haven demand ahead of Fed decision combined with softer dollar and falling real yields MEDIUM
Forex (USD) NEUTRAL Dollar consolidating ahead of Fed rate decision at 18:00 ET with competing inflation and policy signals HIGH
Oil / Energy BEARISH Reports of U.S. easing Iran sanctions as part of interim peace deal potentially adding 500k-1M bpd supply HIGH
Crypto BEARISH Risk-off sentiment ahead of Fed decision with Bitcoin tracking tech stock weakness and elevated volatility HIGH
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